Parasitoids have been released against emerald ash borer (EAB) since 2007, and in some parts of the country they are establishing and showing great promise. Because of the intricacies in the life-histories of the host and the various parasitoid species, the likelihood of establishment varies across the climatic zones throughout the U.S. In particular, Tetrastichus planipennisi, a larval parasitoid, emerges early in the spring and must be able to locate EAB larvae to parasitize for populations to persist. EAB generally has a 2-year life cycle in the north, which is conducive for T. planipennisi establishment, but it overwinters as J-larvae, which are not available for parasitization, in the south. What was unclear was how the proportion of EAB overwintering as larvae changed as one moves from north to south. We collected samples from across the U.S. and created a model based on accumulation of temperatures in the summer to predict the proportion of EAB that overwinter as larvae and are available as hosts for T. planipennisi in the spring. We then correlated the proportion of overwintering larvae with the probability of parasitoid establishment and make recommendations on where to release T. planipennisi.