Modeling the potential global geographic distribution of Striacosta albicosta using MaxEnt

Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), the western bean cutworm, can severely damage corn and dry beans. It occurs in parts of the United States, Canada and Mexico, having undergone a major range expansion in the past 20 years. Therefore, further introduction and establishment of this pest is of concern. Thus, we aim to determine the regions in the world that are currently suitable for S. albicosta using MaxEnt, a software for mapping species distributions using maximum entropy modelling. We collected information on the current distribution of S. albicosta from scientific articles and online databases. We considered 19 environmental variables related to temperature and precipitation obtained from the WorldClim dataset and one soil sand content from the International Soil Reference and Information Centre. We used MaxEnt to classify areas as suitable or unsuitable for S. albicosta based on maximum test sensitivity. We used ArcGIS to extract MaxEnt output for S. albicosta distribution. The variables that most contributed in the distribution model were temperature annual range (37.71ºC), annual mean temperature (7.68ºC) and precipitation of the driest month (53.4mm). Although S. albicosta is currently restricted to North America, our results show adequate areas of risk in regions of South America, Europe, Asia, Oceania and Africa. Additional modelling will predict if the distribution of S. albicosta is likely to change under future climate scenarios. Our study can be used to help government agencies implement strategies such as inspection and quarantine barriers to prevent entry and establishment in areas still free of S. albicosta.